Watching January and February 2016 Downtrend

As stocks began the early 2016 meltdown, I stopped out of many positions and watched. My favorite screens showed few stocks of interest. The downtrends and overhang were too daunting. Somewhat stung by the downturn and change in market behavior, I tracked what was working instead of actively buying and selling.

Almost nightly, I continued my normal screens for growth, margins, and flags. I added additional screens for large caps, perhaps as a safer play vs. smaller companies, but still targeting positive financials and technicals. I separated all of my ideas into speculative and defensive.

During this downturn, my defensive ideas played out well. Some did not work, but a majority ran higher rather quickly. My speculative ideas were less fruitful. While I didn't buy new positions during this time period, I realized that what was working was working. Good setups quickly turned into 5-10% moves.

The lesson for me is to keep hitting the gas pedal. When I know what I know, I know what to do. While the overall market affects all stocks, attractive financial and technical aspects should always attract buyers. Market action for defensive and speculative stocks may depend on the market's desire for risk.

I've consistently learned I want to be early on stock moves. I need to keep this perspective, whether the market is climbing, topping, or bottoming. The desire to act must always be present.

Long-term stocks vs. short-term stocks

For many years, I posted breakout ideas on Twitter and StockTwits. I've been happy with seeking these daily setups, mostly based on charts, as well as fundamentals to a lesser degree. Scanning for breakout stocks is fun every night. Actually 3pm is the best.

In 2015, I had some awesome breakouts in $AGEN, $LXRX, $ANAC, $XON, $ESPR and maybe a few others on buyouts. But, also a few shit the bed - $SWIR, $OVAS, $CTSO and $CUR come to mind. Sadly or perhaps thankfully, I'm not a day trader. But I've been scanning the market with this mindset. And 2015 was flat for me after a ton of work. I also work full-time, hike incessantly, and have an awesome summer gig.

Previously, my goal was to scrape 10% out of a stock in one or two weeks. My new goal is to reduce the portfolio dedicated to riskier moves, but seek the same reward on the riskier portion. The safer moves should holds their own, pay a dividend, and not get easily wacked unless earnings suck. Current thinking implies these riskier stocks include those priced under 10, biotechs, and companies with a seemingly weak business model. Biotech and small cap giveth and taketh away. I love the potential with these higher-beta stocks. I can't give it up. The reward is too great. Perhaps if I dedicate less of the portfolio to risk, this percentage can be easier to manage.

In general, I plan to seek a blend of breakouts and "safer" stocks. Maybe this is a consequence of the market conditions. Or, I'm approaching middle age when I previously thought I was approaching Middle Earth. Sorry. I've had that line in me for a few years. If my speculative stock buying proves more fruitful, I can change the balance. Until then...

Stock ideas - $ORBC, $PLAB, $QSII

First, I'll start with $ORBC, a wireless data company, seemingly a growth company going through growing pains. I am no financial analyst, but it appears they took on some debt and didn't have the growth to support it. Please investigate further. The chart, however, looks strong.

$QSII, a health care information services stock, has been on a tear. Company looks solid. Seems like a great sector. They report earnings near January 20. Company has a history of beating estimates, which sadly doesn't always translate into profits for long investors. I've saved 6 charts for this stock in the past 6 months. Still watching. 

$PLAB is showing up on all my screens tonight - growth, margins, flags. Chart is very strong after long decline summer 2015, which I decided not to hold through. Since then, it trended higher for quite a while, then spiked. Buying volume seems to be building.

Lastly, sorry I haven't been posting on Twitter or StockTwits. The regular job has been hell and a down market gives me time to pause. 

Keep posting stock ideas on Twitter

A cool stock trader guy retired from Twitter recently. We were kinda friends. And now he is gone. Today, I'll outline why you should post stock ideas, charts, and blog posts. Perhaps, I write to keep myself going. More importantly, Twitter provides financial value and knowledge. I'm also trying to resurrect my Twitter friend from the grave. Joking.

Twitter finance encourages expressing ideas, learning from the smart people, and digesting pure entertainment. Some people are insanely funny, knowledgeable, or crazy. I like the last group. However, the smart ones, including yourself, help you learn to make money.

By explaining your stock ideas and perspective on the market, you build knowledge and market experience. Writing down your ideas gives you a force to lean on. Extra Jedi. You've been there. You saw it. Time will prove you right or wrong. Looking at your own Twitter feed should reflect your experience and personal growth. Or misery. As you express your own ideas, you add to the knowledge of Twitter finance. Normal people will read and reflect on your ideas. Mean ones will attack. Crazies will make you laugh, which is great. Seriously, your tweets could be helping someone, perhaps yourself, understand a new concept.

Beyond the continued value of thinking, writing and building ideas, Twitter allows you to study the great stock people. If a person consistently makes amazing calls and describes part of their strategy, you can find commonalities - profit margin, growth, volume, market cap, chart, market conditions, time frame, sector, debt, location, anything. You have to spend time to figure out their logic. It could change depending on market conditions or anything. However, when you know the logic for a person with repeated success you observed, you should be able to screen and find good stock moves using their strategy.

More simply, news, sports, and history are great Twitter entertainment and follows. Personally, an interesting Twitter person is the best. They think aloud and write great lines. I remember a few great Twitter stock moments when people's inspired words are powerful enough to dictate great novels or lead armies. I'm exaggerating, but it was still amazing at the time. You had to be there. More commonly, people are nice, friendly, and outgoing. Normal. Keep writing. Keep posting. Keep thinking. Know that everyone sees it differently.

Remembering a "retired" twitter friend - Paul

Paul was a heck of a guy. Prior to us "meeting", he worked in finance and left to day trade on his own. For some reason, he followed me on Twitter. I am just a regular guy. But Paul always encouraged me and made me feel like I had great ideas. If I posted a chart posted while having beers one night, Paul retweeted me and gave compliments like I was a stock veteran. I remember numerous nights (maybe 20), he would favorite every one of my posts in a row. As my phone beeped incessantly, my wife would look at me and say, "Is that Paul again?"

He had an interesting time with Twitter. He likely burned out a few times. Initially, he posted at a somewhat normal but frequent rate. He must have had a bad experience (or a moment of zen) when he cut back considerably on who he followed, including me. I missed him. Somehow, I got caught up in a tweet with his name, and I mentioned some gratitude towards him, and we were buddies again. Paul once again retweeted me, gave me accolades that humbled me. In one tweet, Paul mentioned myself and another guy. As Twitter history would have it, this other guy has me blocked and I block him. Paul brought enemies together in one tweet -- classic! Paul blogged feverously and had tons of energy for social media. I still admire his energy and passion for stocks and writing.

Alas, he disappeared and canceled his account. A few times, he mentioned how he hated twitter. He gave so much to others, with kind words or in his effort, perhaps he wasn't getting it back in return. I admit, Twitter is sometimes shouting into a blinding snow storm. No one may hear you. At best, you might be talking to yourself. Spending time with the wife and kids might be better if you aren't getting satisfaction or entertainment from Twitter. But Paul gave me some good Twitter "friends". A few stock symbols remind me of Paul. I thank him for some fun experiences and cool Twitter friends. These things are fleeting and seemingly unimportant, but people still have an impact on you, no matter how brief and even if through just an Internet medium.

Whitewater canoeing in the late fall

On October 17, four of us met at a small diner for our fall canoe trip. We consolidated canoes and gear into one large 4-WD truck and drove further into eastern Maine. After numerous stops for additional tarps, tent stakes, and rope, we started paddling at 1:30pm. Locals, who provided our vehicle shuttle, laughed at us beginning a trip on a cold, rainy October weekend.

The St Croix River creates a natural border between the US and Canada. On this 33-mile river trip, nearly 20 campsites are available in either country, although Canadian border patrol could give us heck if they found us in Canada. We opted to stay two nights in the US and keep things simple.

The river started with some quick water and boulders to navigate around. My canoe partner, Chris, and I often shared ideas about how to run the water. Rocks submerged just below the water always pose a small threat of catching a canoe and tipping us over if things went perfectly wrong. Chris called these rocks "sleepers". A few times we disagreed about how to run a section. But we got tangled up on a rock only once throughout the trip.

The weather constantly changed -- overcast, intermittent rain, chilling winds, periods of light snow, sunshine, and purple storm clouds. Temperatures oscillated above and below freezing. I remember for a few moments seeing a fine mist hovered above the silver water. Icy white waves carved the water surface.

Eventually, we reached our first major rapid, Little Falls. Two of us ran this river last year with different people, so we knew what to expect and where to run the rapid. We pulled off the river to inspect the rapid. Scouting provides much time for identifying potential dangers, arguing about which route to take, and observing whitewater from different angles. A couple camping next to this rapid said they wanted to run this river, but the cold weather was too much. They also asked if we had run this rapid before. Upon hearing yes, they said no advice from them was needed.

After agreeing upon where to run the rapid, Chris and I returned to our canoe. We paddled into the falls straight on, dropped over a small 2 foot ledge, and sliced the boat down a series of waves and submerged boulders without much trouble. Our other canoe group, consisting of Mike and John, ran the same route. As they dropped over the first ledge, the boat tipped and capsized. Mike fell face into the river and tumbled downstream, bobbing slowly into pools and slipping around boulders. John managed to stay with the boat and wrestled the canoe and gear to shore. Mike swam and walked his way back to shore. His leg was bruised and he appeared unsettled, perhaps grumpy

We decided to camp here for the evening, so we could regroup and let Mike and John recover. Upon unpacking my gear and setting up my tent, I realized I forgot a tent pole. With temperatures below 30 degrees, my tent mate Mike, who just dipped into 40 degree water while wearing a wet suit, would not be happy. I tried to fashion a tent out of 2 different tarps, but it looked rough and would not hold any body heat. A raccoon could easily walk in and join us. Thankfully, Chris provided a tent pole, borrowed from his own tent, which helped salvage my situation and not affect his tent's setup.

A heavy frost scorched our tent and gear during the overnight. Numerous cups of coffee and pancakes helped us get ready the next morning. At 10:30am, we returned to the river. Much like the first day, we enjoyed many small rapids and quick water sections. An interesting set of falls at Canoose Rips provided excitement but no overturned canoes. We pulled off the river at 4pm. I roasted eggplant on the open fire and cooked it along with onions, tomatoes. I served the meal over rice for supper. The four of us sat around the campfire for hours as the moon rose and stars pierced the night sky. After nearly 15 years of canoe trips, we had a lot of stories to relive and tell again and again.

The next morning, we woke before dawn and left camp by 9am. The river opened up into a large, amorphous lake. We argued a bit about where the takeout was, but soon found the right place. By noon, we had packed our canoes and gear, and our 33-mile paddling trip over 3 days was coming to an end. My body ached from paddling and sleeping on the ground. The cold weather was a bit rough. But after sleeping in a real bed last night, I feel quite refreshed and thankful for the adventure.

Whitewater canoeing trip

Last weekend, 12 friends and I paddled 28 miles along a remote river in northern Maine. We started with a bright sunny day. A halo hovered around the sun. A long mountain range traced the river to our right as we paddled south.

On the first day, we portaged (carried) our seven boats and multitudes of gear beside the river to avoid treacherous water falls and unpassable drops. We also enjoyed fun stretches of whitewater, requiring us to pause, review  the rapids, and choose the best route down river.






After camping on Saturday night and enjoying the campfire and good food, we awoke to steady rain on Sunday. We packed our wet tents and gear, and began our second day of paddling. The rapids again were fun, but we also had 2 more portages, one of which was long and tough on our spirits. We also enjoyed seeing two different 20 foot waterfalls, which we certainly portaged around. Eventually, the rain stopped by mid day.

My partner and I ran most of the rapids well. A few times, we had to bail out our canoe at the bottom of the rapid. I remember just one disagreement when I wanted to steer the canoe next to a huge rock, and my partner grumbled, "you're killing me" as we passed by it. One boat capsized but the crew managed to reach the shore safely. The worst accident was a cut finger while my friend tried to open an entangled knot.

On Monday, we paddled mostly flatwater and saw our first signs of civilization, a few camps along the river. Eagles passed overhead a few times. The trout and salmon fishing was impressive. We finished the trip with a fun rapid passing below a small bridge. Our last portage was just a short carry from the riverside to our vehicles. This group has paddled together for at least 12 years. This trip was another great one.